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• kamu pera

  

  • 44 posts
   

  March 14, 2023 5:03 AM EDT

  Kremlin tries to shield new generation of Russians from war of attrition, not expecting the war to last longer than three years–ISW

  The Russian Duma has received a bill on March 13 that proposes raising the conscription age, which indicates that the Kremlin may not be planning to conduct a full mobilization, ISW reports. This bill would raise the maximum conscription age from 27 to 30 immediately; the minimum conscription age would also be raised from 18 to 21, with a gradual one-year annual increase between 2024 and 2026.

   

  ISW reports that the immediate increase of the maximum conscription age is likely an effort to expand the conscription age range and fulfill some portion of the Russian military’s immediate manpower demands in Ukraine. This would subsequently reduce the overall conscription demands on Russian society in the following years. The gradual increase of the minimum conscription age means that three-year groups of potential Russian conscripts will receive deferments of three, two, and one years each, while the current year groups eligible for conscription face continued attritional fighting in Ukraine.

   

  It’s possible that the Kremlin is attempting to shield a new generation of Russians from the demographic and social impacts of attritional fighting in Ukraine by siloing these impacts among one generational group of Russians, ISW assesses.

  It adds that the timeline given for the contraction of the conscription age range may also suggest that the Kremlin does not expect the war in Ukraine to last longer than the next three years.

  This proposed expansion of the conscription age indicates that the Kremlin is still highly averse to the prospect of a full mobilization, which would involve the mass mobilization of troops and resources.

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